Today the 20-Year Bond ETF (TLT) 50-day EMA crossed down through the 200-day EMA (Death Cross), generating an LT Trend Model SELL Signal. This was the result of a down trend lasting over two months. We note that the PMO has been running flat below the zero line for a month, which tells us that steady downward pressure has been applied to price. On the weekly chart we observe a bullish reverse head and shoulders pattern, which executed when price broke above the neckline and rallied for a couple of weeks. Next it performed a technical pullback to the support line. If the support fails, the pattern will abort, and we will assume a bearish outlook in this time frame. We have been watching this 46-year monthly chart of the 30-Year Bond for a few years now. An extremely long-term (40-year) rising trend line was violated in 2022. At the…
