As we get into the meat of Q3 earnings season, I’m seeing a growing and concerning number of signs of distribution in the equity markets. From lagging breadth indicators to deterioration of trend for the market leaders, we could be entering a painful period for risk assets! Let’s go through three different lenses through which we can make sense of the market environment in October 2024. The S&P 500 is Holding Up (For Now) My daily S&P 500 chart shows how 2024 has looked and felt a great deal like 2021 or 2017, with a slow and steady uptrend and minimal drawdowns. In this sort of environment, I go with the “line in the sand” approach, where I identify a key level or signal that would tell me the uptrend phase may be ending. A simple trendline using the August and September lows has provided a clear line in the sand…
