When I was growing up, I loved Choose Your Own Adventure books. I see the world in shades of gray instead of black-and-white, so I was immediately drawn to the seemingly endless scenarios that the main characters could experience as I made different choices for them. As investors, we often get so caught up in one particular market narrative that we are unable to think “outside the box” and consider other possible outcomes. Successful investors I’ve worked with have been exceptionally good at looking at all the possibilities, challenging their own investment thesis by opening themselves up to other options. Today, we’ll walk through four potential outcomes for the S&P 500 index over the next six to eight weeks. As I share each of these four future paths, I’ll describe the market conditions that would likely be involved, and I’ll also share my estimated probability for each scenario. By the way, we ran…
