In our last piece, we presented a long term/secular outlook for intermediate-term Treasuries, where we concluded that the structural break above the secular downtrend from the September 1981 high, coupled with the push above the November 2018 pivot @ 3.25%, has changed the long-term secular trend from lower (a bull market) to neutral. More work is needed to move the secular trend from neutral to bearish. In this piece, we’ll assess how the weekly chart might interact with the monthly chart, and then begin to think about how investors can react to various scenarios as they are set up over the course of the next several weeks and months. As a warning, my analysis of the shorter perspective time frame didn’t leave me with an actionable trade or even a clear expectation for a probable outcome over the next few weeks. I think the market is ready to move away…
